A predictive model of surface warfare officer retention : factors affecting turnover

Junior Surface Warfare Officer retention is in a crisis. The Surface Warfare Officer community anticipates an inability to fill Department Head billets due to the number of junior Surface Warfare Officers leaving military service. The goal of this study was to predict Surface Warfare Officer retention levels through the validation of a conceptual model from the Surface Warfare Community Manager's office using logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. This study utilized data from the Officer Master File and the results from a questionnaire administered to active duty Surface Warfare Officers. Manpower analysts can use this model to predict whether certain groups of officers, with a given set of characteristics, are more likely to remain in military service.