FORECASTING SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN USING ARIMA MODELS

The paper describes an empirical study of modelling and forecasting time series data of sugarcane production in Pakistan. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology has been used for forecasting. The diagnostic checking has shown that ARIMA (3,2,2) is appropriate. The observed ami fitted values for years from 1947-48 to 1988-89 overlap to a large extent, The forecasts from 1989-90 to 1999-2000 arc calculated based on the selected model. These forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee the future requirements of grain, import and/or export and adopt appropriate measures in this regard.