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2013•Universiti Utara Malaysia Institutional Repository (Universiti Utara Malaysia)Open access

Forecasting of lentil pulse production: An econometric analysis

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Md. Azizul Baten, Ashutosh Roy, Md. Monir Hossain

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Abstract

The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting time series data of lentil pulse production in Bangladesh. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology has been used for forecasting.The diagnostic checking has shown that ARIMA (0, 1, 9) is appropriate.The forecasts from 2011-12 to 2015-16 are calculated based on the selected model.These forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt appropriate measures in this regard.

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What this paper is about

The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting time series data of lentil pulse production in Bangladesh. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology has been used for forecasting.The diagnostic checking has shown that ARIMA (0, 1, 9) is appropriate.The forecasts from 2011-12 to 2015-16 are calculated based on the selected model.These forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt appropriate measures in this regard.

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Available abstract

The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting time series data of lentil pulse production in Bangladesh. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology has been used for forecasting.The diagnostic checking has shown that ARIMA (0, 1, 9) is appropriate.The forecasts from 2011-12 to 2015-16 are calculated based on the selected model.These forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt appropriate measures in this regard.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Box–Jenkins, Production (economics), Econometrics, Time series, Econometric model, Economics, Statistics

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