Quantitative Analysis on the Disparity of Regional Economic Development in China and Its Evolution from 1952 to 2000

Since late 1970s scholars have done much research on it, but conclusions from different scholars may differ in many ways. It is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952—2000. The main conclusions are: (a) Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years. (b) Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the Great Leap Forward period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward trend and it assumed a slowly downward trend from 1979 to1990. Afterwards from 1991 to 2000 the disparity assumed a slowly upward trend again. In other words, the strategy of regional balanced development before the reform and opening up did not bring us a reduction in comparative disparity of regional economic development, nor did the lopsided development strategy implemented since then bring us an expansion of comparative disparity of regional economic development in China. (c) A comparison between Shanghai and Guizhou shows that absolute inter-provincial disparity has been quite big for years. The disparity of economic development between the two provinces expanded till 1978 and reduced after the reform and opening up. Since 1990 the disparity began to expand for the second times with a slight drop in 1998. (d) The R/S analysis result tell us that In the Great Cultural Revolution