Analysis of Changes in China′s Energy Mix and Implications to Energy Development Strategy

A glimpse of the changes in China′s energy consumption over the past 10 years shows that the country′s energy use has been growing very fast.From 2000 to 2010,China′s energy consumption grew 11.58% per year,compared to the worldwide average growth of only 2.81% in the same period.China′s energy consumption elastic coefficient and energy intensity are very high.The country′s energy intensity reached 0.77t of oil equivalent per 1000 US dollars in 2010,significantly higher than the average values of the world and OECD countries and also higher than those of many developing countries.The country′s energy mix has not improved considerably as well.Coal accounts for a large share and consumption is growing rapidly.Both import and consumption of petroleum are growing rapidly,but the share of petroleum in the country′s energy mix is declining.The share of alternative energy in the country′s energy mix is still very low.China must change the way of its economic and energy development by adjusting industrial structures and greatly reducing energy intensity,in turn slowing down energy consumption.However,a review of the history of China′s energy consumption in the past decade reminds us that it would be challenging to achieve the above objectives.Breakneck economic growth and imbalanced economic structure are the main causes of the excessively fast growth of energy consumption in China.Moderate economic growth is the prerequisite to ensure low elastic coefficient for energy consumption and the achievement of energy saving objectives.Efficient and clean use of coal is an approach that China must adopt in developing energy.In addition,China should objectively forecast the development of non-fossil fuels and subsidies from the government and other sources should focus on scientific research and industrial experiments linking laboratory tests and large-scale applications.Energy strategy should emphasize energy saving,emission reduction,total emission control,structural optimization,diversification,balanced development and adoption of measures according to local conditions.China should make energy saving and energy intensity reduction a national policy and give them priority in implementing energy strategy.The shares of petroleum and particularly natural gas,primary electricity and alternative energy in the energy mix should be increased gradually and that of coal shall be lowered.Each region in the country should develop energy according to their local conditions and diversify their energy supplies and consumption in the broad sense.