Verification and Analysis of Sunny/Rainy Forecasting Abilities of T213 Precipitation Forecast Product in Xinjiang

Using rainfall data of observation stations in Xinjiang and precipitation forecast products of T213 global model,we verified and analyzed the sunny/rainy forecasting abilities of the precipitation product of T213 by the objective rainfall verification method,one of short-range and mid-range weather forecast verification methods.The results showed that obvious temporal and spatial characteristics exist in sunny/rainy threat score(TS),as well as false alarm rate and dismissal alarm rate of the T213 precipitation forecast in Xinjiang region.The higher TS are in Yili River valley,the east of Aletai area and the west of Tianshan Mountain range.The lower TS are in the regions of complicated topographical condition and the desert hinterland where precipitation is little;the spatial dictribution of sunny/rainy TS in spring with less precipitation is roughly consistent with that in summer of rich precipitation,and it related to the special topography in Xinjiang.There is obvious seasonal variation in sunny/rainy TS,which is related to the seasonal precipitation amount.