Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province

This paper calculated ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in Jilin Province during 1996 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory,analyzed the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita,and obtained development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita by using the analysis of SPSS statistical software.The results indicated the ecological footprint per capita had ascended firstly and then descended between 1996 and 1998.It increased continuously from 1.784 1 hm2 per capita to 3.201 3 hm2 per capita between 1998 and 2010,and ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.371 0 hm2 per capita to 1.302 8 hm2 per capita between 1996 and 2010.In the same period,ecological deficit had increased from 0.560 1 hm2 per capita to 1.898 5 hm2 per capita,indicating that the development of Jilin Province was in an unsustainable status.Ecological footprint per 10 000 RMB GDP dropped from 3.769 2 hm2 to 1.014 4 hm2 and had the trend of further reduction.The development prediction model showed the ecological footprint per capita in Jilin Province would increase from 3.420 1 hm2 per capita to 6.007 3 hm2 per capita between 2011 and 2025,ecological capacity per capita would drop from 1.300 1 hm2 per capita to 1.258 1 hm2 per capita and ecological deficit would increase from 2.120 0 hm2 per capita to 4.749 2 hm2 per capita.Jilin Province must take a series of effective measures to change the existing mode of economic development and improve scientific and technological innovation,and promote the quality of the people.Otherwise,the ecological deficit will continue to increase,the situation of sustainable development will deteriorate further.