Analysis and dynamic prediction of per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China based on empirical mode decomposition method

The fluctuant cycles of per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China from 1961 to 2001 are decomposed and picked-up based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD)method.Nonlinear dynamic prediction models are presented with the cycles.We proposed three prediction scenarios according to Living Planet Report 2006.The results show that:1)Over last 40 a,the obvious undulation cycles of per capita ecological footprint(EF)growth in China are 3.5 a and 8 a,and the periods of per capita biocapacity(BC)growth are 2.7 a and 28 a.2)The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita EF would be 3.391 g·hm2,per capita BC would be 0.490 g·hm2,and per capita ecological deficit(ED)would be 3.024 g·hm2 in China if their average annual change rates are constant.3)The slow-shift scenario shows per capita EF in China would increase from 1.395 g·hm2 in 2001 to 1.84g·hm2 in 2025 and per capita BC would fall from 0.9745 g·hm2 in 2001 to 0.860 g·hm2 in 2025 if their average annual change rates are corresponding 1.195% and 0.614%.Per capita ED in China would be 0.989 g·hm2 in 2025.4)The rapid-reduce scenario shows per capita EF,BC,and ED in China would fall from 1.795 g·hm2,0.860 g·hm2,and 0.935 g·hm2 in 2025 to 1.381 g·hm2,0.739 g·hm2,and 0.641 g·hm2 in 2050,respectively.But a hypothesis of this trend is the change of per capita EF and BC in China should keep the same trend of contemporaneous world.Therefore,China could denote sustainability at the global level.