Weather situation analysis and numerical prediction of the “20110901” extratropical storm surge

The paper makes a case study to the typical20110901extratropical storm surge occurred in the Bo-hai Sea.Based on two different storm surge forecast models,both of them show a good ability to forecast the de-velopment of the extratropical storm surge.Meanwhile,for those weather systems moving at a stable speed,the effective forecasting lengths of time intervals could be extended to 24 hours.According to the analysis of the characteristics of extratropical storm surge during the last ten years in the Bohai Sea,it is found that the combina-tion of cold air and low pressure could generate a disastrous storm surge most possibly in the Bohai bay.Especial-ly in late summer,the effect of disaster could be intensified due to the mesoscale convective band superimposed on the cyclonic scale weather system.