Scenarios Analyses on the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Land Use Change--A Case Study in Taips County of Inner Mongolia

Scenarios analyses of regional land use change, influenced by various factors, have become the hot-spots of LUCC studies. Regarding system dynamics model and CLUE-S model as the modeling framework, this paper designed a Land-Use Change System Dynamics (LUCSD) model and realized the scenario analyses of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented models in Taips County(2000～2020). The findings are concluded that land use change is a dynamic process driven by population growth, economic improvement and farming and pasturing development, and unused land in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Taips County will be the sensitive areas of land use change in the coming nearly 20 years. Based on different scenarios models, competition between land-use types led to diversity storylines in some areas. In this sense, some effective measures should be taken to hold back the irreversible but irrational conversions among land use categories to protect the eco-environment and go along with a sustainable development in Taips County.