Dynamic simulation on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change in Taibus County

The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change, as a hotspot in the research field of land use and land cover change(LUCC), is involved with many driving factors. This paper reclassified the driving factors into three categories (stable controlling factors, seasonal changing factors and socio-economic factors) and revealed the influencing direction and intensity of different factors on land use change by logistic analyses between land use change and its driving factors. Furthermore, regarding CLUE-S model as the modeling framework, this paper designed a dynamic simulation model on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change in Taibus County. In terms of the running results of the System Dynamic Model of Land Use Change and the change of social and economic factors, this paper realized the dynamic simulation of land use change as well as the scenario analyses of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented models in Taibus County. The comparisons of the simulated results of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented scenarios disclose the competitions and successions in spatial and temporal scales affected by the integrated effects from all kinds of driving factors. the findings show that the northeastern and northwestern sections covered by unused land at present will become the most sensitive belts for land use change, which further reveal the necessity of macro planning for land use in those areas. In this sense, the research results will serve the decision making on land use planning, the rational exploitation of land resources and the implementation of sustainable development strategy of Taibus County.