Dynamics of ecological footprint in China

The ecological footprint of China from 1978 to 2003 was studied,and the forecast models of ecological footprint and ecological capacity were obtained.The results of the analyses on dynamics of ecological footprints show that the ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 0.8992hm~2 in 1978 to 2.2522hm~2 in 2003,and the ecological capacity increased from 0.7722hm~2 to 0.8819hm~2.The ecological deficit was 0.127hm~2 in 1978,and rose to 1.3702hm~2 by 2003.The forecast shows that the ecological footprint per capita will be 2.7767hm~2 in 2010 and 3.1717hm~2 in 2015,and that the ecological capacity per capita will be 1.0224hm~2 in 2010 and 1.1319hm~2 in 2015,and that the ecological deficit per capita will reach to 1.7543hm~2 in 2010 and 2.0398hm~2 in 2015.The research indicates that the present developing mode is not sustainable,the ecological environment is at risk,and the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are becoming more and more obvious.