An Analysis of the Main Influential Factors of Shandong Domestic Tourism and the Market Scale Forecast Based on Grey System Theory

Based on gray relational analysis method of gray system theory and taking the gray relational grade as a measurement indicator,this paper analyzes the relevant factors that affect Shandong domestic tourism industry according to Shandong domestic tourism data from 2001 to 2011. The three primary influencing factors of Shandong domestic arrivals are GDP,PGDP and annual average wages of staff and workers,and the three primary influencing factors of Shandong domestic income are GDP,PGDP and total retail sales of social consumer goods. From an empirical perspective,it reveals the relational degree between domestic tourism industry and each influencing factors,including its changing rule. By constructing GM( 1,1) forecasting model,it has a short period prediction of Shandong domestic tourist arrivals and domestic tourism income. Thereby it provides a scientific decision-making basis for government to draw up development planning and adjust the industrial structure of domestic tourism industry.