ScholarLens Back to search
2006•Chinese Journal of Hospital StatisticsRequires access

Application in infectious disease forecasting by ARIMA model

Jie Shan

Open publisher page 2 citations

Abstract

Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast hepatitis B is given to help infectious diseases forecasting system. Methods Proper ARIMA model is obtained with SPSS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The error of prediction to hepatitis B is around 15%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B with a short lead time.

About this research paper

What this paper is about

Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast hepatitis B is given to help infectious diseases forecasting system. Methods Proper ARIMA model is obtained with SPSS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The error of prediction to hepatitis B is around 15%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B with a short lead time.

Why it matters

OpenAlex reports 2 citations for this work. Citation counts describe recorded attention and do not establish research quality.

Key contribution

A contribution statement is not available in the OpenAlex record.

Method / approach

Method details are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Main findings

Findings are not separately available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Limitations

Limitations are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Applications

Application details are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Available abstract

Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast hepatitis B is given to help infectious diseases forecasting system. Methods Proper ARIMA model is obtained with SPSS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The error of prediction to hepatitis B is around 15%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B with a short lead time.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Time series, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Computer science, Econometrics, Statistics, Mathematics, Disease

Related papers

Related paper 1Related paper 2Related paper 3
Back to paper searchBrowse research topicsOriginal source
Application in infectious disease forecasting by ARIMA model — Research Paper | ScholarLens