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2009•Journal of Preventive Medicine InformationRequires access

ARIMA Model on Prediction of Hepatitis A Attack

Li Gao

Open publisher page 1 citations

Abstract

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) and establish a predictive model for Hepatitis A and,to prove the applicability of the model.Methods Samples which caught Hepatitis A from 1990 Jan to 2007 Dec in Gansu Province were subjected.SPSS Expert Modeler was used to fit ARIMA model,and Q statistic was used to verify the applicability of the model.Results The model of ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) was established.The statistic of Q was 20.637,which verified the applicability of this model.Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze the Hepatitis A attack and make a short term prediction.

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What this paper is about

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) and establish a predictive model for Hepatitis A and,to prove the applicability of the model.Methods Samples which caught Hepatitis A from 1990 Jan to 2007 Dec in Gansu Province were subjected.SPSS Expert Modeler was used to fit ARIMA model,and Q statistic was used to verify the applicability of the model.Results The model of ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) was established.The statistic of Q was 20.637,which verified the applicability of this model.Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze the Hepatitis A attack and make a short term prediction.

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Available abstract

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) and establish a predictive model for Hepatitis A and,to prove the applicability of the model.Methods Samples which caught Hepatitis A from 1990 Jan to 2007 Dec in Gansu Province were subjected.SPSS Expert Modeler was used to fit ARIMA model,and Q statistic was used to verify the applicability of the model.Results The model of ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) was established.The statistic of Q was 20.637,which verified the applicability of this model.Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze the Hepatitis A attack and make a short term prediction.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Statistic, Statistics, Box–Jenkins, Moving average, Computer science, Econometrics, Time series

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