The Growth and Distribution of Population in Guangzhou City in 1982-2000

The growth and change of population are closely related to the urban development. The regularity of urban population changes provides supports for the policy-making concerned urban development. As the frontier region of reform and opening up, Guangzhou has experienced a rapid economic, social development, and the population change in the metropolitans is earlier than others in China. Using the data of the third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth censuses at a Neighborhood(Jie Dao in Chinese) and Town(the NT) level by the mathematic methods of density analysis, concentration index, trend surface analysis and regression analysis model, article reveals the characteristics and law of the population growth and distribution in Guangzhou. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the population growth of Guangzhou can be divided into three stages: the rapid growth stage, from 1986 to 1994, with annual growth rate of 1.74 %; the fluctuation growth stage, from1995 to 2003, with that of 1.59%; and the slow growth stage, from 2004 to 2010, with that of 1.47 %. The total population has a stable increase in 1986-2010. 2) There is an obvious spatial difference for population growth at the NT level. The number of the NT with the population reduction was increase, while the NT which has rapid population growth has spred from central district to the near suburb and the outer suburb. The distribution of population in Guangzhou maintained a de-centralized regular pattern. Especially last 10 years, it become more and more obvious than the population density in central city is decreased slowly, rapid increase in near suburbs, and stable increase in outer suburbs; 3) The population distribution of Guangzhou presented to be decentralization and equalization. Population concentration index decreased gradually and the trend of population gravity migration moved eastward significantly. The spatial distribution of population has a significant change,which presents a typicalpeak value single center + small centers outsidespace structure before 2000. Since2000, the population density in central district expands eastward and northward, the population density in near suburb has a rapid increase, a new population density peak was formed and then spatial distribution presents an obviousflatten main centers + small centers outsidespace structure in recent 10 years. 4) The population growth of Guangzhou was at growing stage before 1990 s, was at a mature stage in 2000, and now is in the transition phase from the stage of mature late to the stage of old age, but the population gap in center city has not appeared until now; 5) the suburbanization in Guangzhou, the type of a central district development, had appeared since 1990 s, and became obvious since 2000 s in Guangzhou. 6) There was an obvious difference in population growth and spatial distribution between metropolitan of China and the developed countries. The population growth in most metropolitan of China is in the earlier stage of urbanization, while most of the developed countries have already moved to the stage of re-urbanization.