Model for end-stage liver disease in assessing the effect of plasma exchange on prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis

Objective To study the effect of plasma exchange on the short term prognosis in patients with chronic severe hepatitis using model for end-stage Iiver disease(MELD)score.Methods 210 patients with chronic severe hepatitis were divided into PE group(n=85)and control group(n=125).The MELD scores and the death rates within 3 months were observed.The validity of MELD was determined by ROC curves and area under the curve(AUC).Results The MELD scores were decreased in patients with MELD less than 39 after treatment in the two groups(P0.01);The mortality rate in PE group(49.4%)was lower than that in contml(64.8%,P0.05);There were no significant difference in patients with MELD≥40(P0.05);The optimal cut-off value of MELD to predict the prognosis of patients in control group was 26,and its sensitivity,specificity and accuracy were 80.2%,79.5% and 80.0%,respectively,while in PE group they were 30,76.2%,69.8% and 72.9%,respectively.Conclusions MELD score is able to accurately predict the short-term prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis.