Reliability Analysis of Stability of Fill Slope

In order to analyze reliability of the stability of fill slopes,first,uncertain factors of stability of slope are discussed on the basis of the reliability theory.Then,the basic process of reliability analysis of fill slope is established,considering multi-variables.Finally,we apply the proposed method to analyze typical fill slope in manganese mine located at Ertang village,Pingle county,Guangxi.Results show that the fill slope uncertainties include two aspects,namely,internal structure and environmental factors.The former is due to the uncertainty of soil and slope geometric characteristics,and the latter is due to the rainfall,earthquakes,artificial load and so on.The reliability analysis contains three steps including analyzing uncertainty of fill slope,establishing the equation of reliability analysis,calculating reliability index and evaluating slope safety.The sensitivity factors for analyzing slope stability is internal friction angle Φ cohesion C vehicle load F.When Considering the maximum rainfall of 50 years return period,the stability is lowest at 12 h in one rain course.Its reliability index(β)is 8.79 and the failure probability is 0.According to the safety factor of criterion,the safe probability of the fill slope is 69.84%.