Review of effectiveness on geological hazard forecast and early warning

Accurate forecast and warning is an effective measure to avoid and mitigat loss caused by geological hazard.Much work has been doing on geological hazard forecast and warning in our country.So scientific evaluation of geological hazard forecast and warning level becomes an important question for discussion.However,many problems were found in current evaluation system of geological hazard forecast and warning level in the former research.In order to solve out these problems and to evaluate the forecast and warning level scientifically,in this article,successful rate of geological hazard forecast and warning was adopted and an integrated evaluation system was introduced.As we all know,the content of the forecast and warning of geological hazards generally includes three elements such as occurring time,space and magnitude,what's more,the forecast and warning scope of theses three elements affect the forecast and warning level.So in this article three forecast and warning evaluation models of these three elements were respectively established at first.Then on the basis of the three evaluation models,an integrated evaluation model was established,which includes both the evaluation of one geological hazard occurred at certain time and evaluation of all the geological hazards occurred at certain time interval,such as one quarter or one year.The evaluation model of geological hazard forecast and warning level introduced in this article accords with the current level of our country and therefore it has certain reference value to evaluate the level of geological hazard forecast and warning.