Current Situation and Prospect of Regional Geo-hazards Meteorological Early Warning Model

Rainfall is a key factor that triggers geological disasters,and it is also one of the most active predisposing factors.Based on the analysis of the research progress of the meteorological early warning of geological disasters at home and abroad,according to the classification of models(methods) used by the meteorological early warning of geological disasters,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the early warning model for each category.The results show that implicit(first generation) and explicit(second generation) early warning models,which are based on the principle of mathematical statistics,have the characteristics of large dispersion,localness,the subjectivity of analysis process and instability or imperfection because of inadequate data;in addition,they require higher quality of the statistical samples and have the defect of being unable to explain the internal deformation mechanism of geological hazards and the difficulty to verify the early warning results.Although the third generation early warning models based on the dynamics principle can compensate for the lack of statistical early warning models,they are in the exploring stage,have the limited use only in some regions,and fail to get wide application.For the purpose of improving the early warning capability of early warning systems,the coupling warning of the third generation models will be the main research direction in the future.