System Dynamics Analysis on the Disequilibrium of Urban Housing——From the Perspective of New-type Urbanization

The urban housing supply and demand from 1996 to 2012are simulated by a system dynamics model,and the main factors affecting disequilibrium condition are analyzed.Based on the SD analysis,this paper evaluates the disequilibrium condition empirically and discusses the main reasons.The results show although the degree of disequilibrium isn't high,divergence between potential supply and demand has been increasing since 2009,and the ratio of houses for sale has also been going up contnuously,which situation is connected with excessive expectations,declining productivity,etc.It is argued that macro control over quantity should be taken as seriously as that over housing price,and that the disequilibrium indicators should be made full use of in macro control.Relative policy suggestions are provided specifically.