A Forecasting Method of Passenger Flow in Urban Agglomeration on the Basis of Operation Organization

In view of importance of rail transit passenger flow forecasting,in order to improve precision of the four stage methods of urban agglomeration transit passenger flow,this paper first analyzed characteristics of urban agglomeration transit passenger flow,then divided that into two types: independent network assignment method and comprehensive network assignment method.It also analyzed merits and shortcomings of two methods,and made some improvements of comprehensive network assignment method which based on association of traffic mode split and traffic assignment,meanwhile it advanced a forecasting method of passenger flow on basis of operation organization and also introduced practice in TransCAD.This method use city and intercity public traffic network as base assignment network,it considered cooperation and competition relationship of public transportation modes based on operation organization,then got steady rail transit passenger flow.The result is more reasonable and it is only method for passenger flow forecasting of rail transit.