Transfer Passenger Flow Forecasting of Intercity Rail Transit

The passenger flow forecasting which determines the scale of rail transit is important to guarantee the scientific,rational and feasible rail transit construction.The availability of previous methods for intercity passenger flow forecasting is distinct.A combination of three-time attraction and passenger transfer theory is proposed in this paper and the transfer rate can be obtained by distance analysis learned from statistical theory.The general distance dissimilarities matrix is gained according to the factor influencing the transfer passenger flow.Then,the transfer rate of passenger flow is obtained within the bounds of three-time attraction of rail transit.Therefore,the objected passenger flow is forecasted.The example with field data of one city illustrates the advantages of the proposed method: simple,feasible and applicable.