EFFECT ANALYSIS AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION OF VOLCANO LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD MAXIMUM FLOW OF CHANGBAISHAN TIANCHI VOLCANO

The active volcano-Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano in China,has an urgent eruption danger at present. There have been several eruptions in the past. In recent years,ground deformation and earthquake monitoring stations were established in the Changbaishan Volcano area,and the monitoring data show that the magma underground has triggered earthquake swarm activities and led to ground deformation. A lot of research results show that Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano is in an early unrest stage at present,the future eruption risk is increasing. The volcano disaster is very complicated.The determinants include volcano eruption pattern, crater position and magma ingredients. To the Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano,once it erupts in the future,in addition to generating volcano mud flow,debris flow and ash cloud,the flooding dam overflow caused will be the most influential and worst secondary disaster. Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano Lake is one of the highest volcano lakes in the world,with a lake area 10km2,depth 371m,water volume 2 billion m3,once it bursts,it will cause huge economic loss and people death to the downstream region. This article elaborates the topography and hydrology and watershed characteristics of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano. Using the hydraulic formula,we estimate the volcano lake dam-break model and analyze maximum volcano lake outburst flood flow and the flood evolution process to downstream area under the different conditions.The conclusion shows that,if the volcano lake dam collapses by half,the Er-Dao town will be flooded,and the downstream Baishan reservoir will suffer a serious threat from the floodwaters.