The Change Characteristics of Winter Snowfall, Snow Concentration Degree and Concentration Period in the Tianshan Mountains

Tianshan is a snow disaster-prone area. Developing research on the variation of Tianshan snowfall is good to improve the snowstorm forecast. In this paper, based on the data of winter snowfall during 1961-2010 from twenty-one meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains, the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall, snow concentration degree (CD) and concentration period (CP) were analyzed with methods of regression analysis, Inverse Distance Weighted and wavelet analysis, and the winter snowfall variation in future was predicted using Rescaled Range Analysis. The results are as follows: the winter snowfall increases significantly; over the same period, snowfall’s CD and CP also increase but not significantly; the differences in spatial distribution are still significant; winter snowfall, CD and CP have different cycle variations in certain time-series, and the cycle is rather significant; the tendency of snowfall’s CD and CP on south (north) slope is different from that on north slope in terms of inter-annual change; snowfall’s CD in Tianshan decreases roughly from south slope to north slope, while the CP decreases roughly from west to east. The upward tendency of snowfall’s CD and CP on south slope shows that snowstorm will possibly increase in late winter. Although snowfall’s CD decreases on north slope, the tendency of snowfall is much significant, so north slope is still snow disaster-prone areas. In order to reduce the economic losses caused by snowstorm, relevant departments shall take timely preventive measures. In addition, to further analyze the snowfall characteristics, we need to start research work of its circulation background soon.