Study on Predicting the Population of the Regions with Abnormal Sex Ratio at Birth——Based on the Investigation of the Fertility Desires of the Fertility Women

Hubei is a populous province in China,and the problem of abnormal sex ratio at birth is quite serious.This paper analyzes the present fertility desires of the fertility women based on the investigation of the cities of E'zhou,Huangshi,Xiantao in Hubei Province.The analysis results show that two-child fertility policy could agree with the fertility desires of the fertility women.On this basis,this paper predicts the future population in E'zhou City based on three different schemes: the first one is the current fertility policy;the second one is the two-child fertility policy with birth intervals;and the third one is the two-child fertility policy without birth intervals.The research results suggests that the two-child fertility policy with birth intervals is better than the other two schemes in controlling total population,stabilizing low fertility level,and ensuring normal sex ratio at birth,etc.The two-child fertility policy is still an effective method in resolving population problem in the regions with abnormal sex ratio at birth.