Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan

According to the hrittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situations for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan regions are analyzed in the present paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong,strong earthquake or major(great) earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that major(great) earthquakes will occur in Heze-Puyang,Shanxi northeast,Shanxi southwest,Taiwan Nantou and Hualian-Taidong seismic zones and that moderate-strong or strong earthquakes will occur in Haicheng,Tongliao,ArongqiNenjiang and Xingtai seismic zones.In addition,strong earthquake may happen in Beijing and its surrounding in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan seismic zone in the next 10 — 20years.Furthermore,an earthquake with a magnitude of about5.5 that can he regarded as a landmark event at the dilatation point of locked patch will happen in the seismic zone in Shandong section of Tanlu fracture zone.The department concerned should consider the conclusions obtained in this paper for taking precautions against earthquakes.A method to select minimum magnitude of seismic events in the historical earthfiuake data is also suggested when calculating the value of CBS in a seismic zone.