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2014•Journal of University of Science and Technology LiaoningRequires access

Establishment and application of GDP forecasting model based on ARIMA

Sun Silon

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Abstract

In order to accurately forecast the growth trend of GDP in Shandong province in the 12thfive-yearplan,a GDP forecasting model is established based on ARIMA model by analyzing the GDP data from 1978 to 2012。The results indicate that ARIMA(2,2,2)approximates the alteration of the GDP of Shandong province from 1978 to 2012. On this basis,the GDP data is predicted from 2013 to 2015 with the established model. The results are 596 13.02,692 04.16,and 803 28.56 billion.

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What this paper is about

In order to accurately forecast the growth trend of GDP in Shandong province in the 12thfive-yearplan,a GDP forecasting model is established based on ARIMA model by analyzing the GDP data from 1978 to 2012。The results indicate that ARIMA(2,2,2)approximates the alteration of the GDP of Shandong province from 1978 to 2012. On this basis,the GDP data is predicted from 2013 to 2015 with the established model. The results are 596 13.02,692 04.16,and 803 28.56 billion.

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Available abstract

In order to accurately forecast the growth trend of GDP in Shandong province in the 12thfive-yearplan,a GDP forecasting model is established based on ARIMA model by analyzing the GDP data from 1978 to 2012。The results indicate that ARIMA(2,2,2)approximates the alteration of the GDP of Shandong province from 1978 to 2012. On this basis,the GDP data is predicted from 2013 to 2015 with the established model. The results are 596 13.02,692 04.16,and 803 28.56 billion.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Real gross domestic product, Econometrics, Economics, Gross domestic product, Time series, Statistics, Mathematics

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