Model and Forecast for China’s GDP from 1953 to 2015 Based on the ARIMA Model

本文从《中国统计年鉴》中选取中国1953年至2015年共63年的GDP作为数据，运用时间序列分析的基本分析方法——随机时序分析，对数据进行绘图分析、模型识别、参数估计、模型估计、模型拟合和检验，建立GDP时间序列模型，并对中国未来3年的经济发展做出预测，为政府制定经济发展战略提供依据。 This paper uses random time series method to analyze the data of China’s GDP from 1953 to 2015. By drawing, model recognition, parameter estimation, model estimation and model fitting, we establish GDP time series model and utilize it to predict the economic development of China in the next 3 years, and thus provide the basis for the government to formulate the economic development tragedy.