Prediction of electrical equipment failure rate for condition-based maintenance decision-making

As the electrical equipment failure rate calculated by post-failure statistic analysis has low reliability,a way to predict electrical equipment failure rate is introduced,which is based on the actual operating state of equipment and the relevant evaluation rules. The health index is adopted to quantify the equipment deterioration,which is used to extrapolate the current equipment failure rate and determine its actual service age. The Marquardt method is used to deduce the failure rate function and the Weibull distribution is combined to piecewise fit the curve. The age reduction factor is introduced to describe the repair extent,the equivalent service age of the equipment after maintenance is then determined and its failure rate is predicted,which supports the follow-up implementation of optimized condition-based maintenance for multiple devices. Case study shows the effectiveness of presented method.