Application of convective parameters from climatic characteristics in short-term weather forecast

According to the convective parameters from climatic characteristics,the probability of the occurring convective weather can be estimated ahead of time,so weather forecast accuracy will improve.Based on the sounding data of 17 ground stations in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai from June to August during two years from 2004 to 2005,the climatic average values of convective parameters(CAPE,SI,KI and IC) were calculated,and then the average values of each convective parameter in thunderstorm day and strong storm day were given.The results indicate that climatic characteristics of convective weather are different among the different months and in the different intensities.Furthermore,the convective parameters of daily 4 time levels in July of 2006 are calculated,and the relationships between these parameters and weather in Shijiazhuang are analyzed.It found that CAPE and SI can reflect some strong convective characteristics.The upper-air sounding records at 0200 and 1400(BST) can make up the limitation of overtime interval from 0800 to 2000(BST),which is significant to improve the abilities of short-term and nowcasting weather forecast.