Study on potential warning of severe convective weather based on method of overlapping sets of indices in Anhui province,China

A number of days of severe convective weather during April to September from 2005 to 2007 in Anhui province were analyzed,and relationships between the severe convective weather and instability index calculated by sounding data were investigated.The results show that K,A,Si indices,convective available potential energy(CAPE),normalization convective available potential energy(NCAPE) and convective inhibition(CIN) are indicative of severe convective weather.Thus,the potential warning indices of severe convective weather are established,including K index and Si index as well as CAPE.According to these indices,the threshold values in the different seasons are determined.These indices are calculated by the products of MM5 mesoscale model.13 severe convective weather processes from 2005 to 2010 are predicted by the MM5 model.Compared with the real situation,warning products from the MM5 model are predictive to most of the cases.Among cases,two severe convective weather processes are analyzed in detail.It indicates that the MM5 mesoscale model could predict the potential of severe convective weather,especially for the time and location of the occurrence of severe convective weather.