A Hybrid Evaluation Method of Software Project Cost Risk

Model predictions based on formula in the field of software engineering is often less accurate than human being's experience,while the prediction method based on experience also has many problems.This paper presents a risk assessment method of software project based on historical project data and expertise know how,and uses functional point analysis method to count or estimate the size of the project,establishes the BN model of project cost overrun assessed by expert,and gets relationship between cost overrun and productivity by the historical data.This method can calculate the productivity of project plan,and then estimate the cost of project plan.The comparison between current and planed productivity of projects is used to estimate whether risk of cost exists.This method is independent from the cost forecasting model.The cost of the project budget and the final actual costs referring to the ideal cost of the project are more reliable than that of using cost risk analysis assessment based on uncertain cost estimate.