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2011•Journal of Qiqihar UniversityRequires access

Forecast and the model of consumer price index based on ARIMA

Xie Chang-feng

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Abstract

This paper founds the forecasting model of consumer price index,based on the actual consumer price index from 2007 year to 2010 year.According to the result of the experiment,absolute error and the percentage of absolute error of the model are controlled within a certain range.Consequently,the effect of fitting is considerable well and the predictive value is close to the actual value.At last,the paper also uses the model to predict the consumer price index from January to may in 2011 year of our country.

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What this paper is about

This paper founds the forecasting model of consumer price index,based on the actual consumer price index from 2007 year to 2010 year.According to the result of the experiment,absolute error and the percentage of absolute error of the model are controlled within a certain range.Consequently,the effect of fitting is considerable well and the predictive value is close to the actual value.At last,the paper also uses the model to predict the consumer price index from January to may in 2011 year of our country.

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Available abstract

This paper founds the forecasting model of consumer price index,based on the actual consumer price index from 2007 year to 2010 year.According to the result of the experiment,absolute error and the percentage of absolute error of the model are controlled within a certain range.Consequently,the effect of fitting is considerable well and the predictive value is close to the actual value.At last,the paper also uses the model to predict the consumer price index from January to may in 2011 year of our country.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Econometrics, Mean absolute percentage error, Consumer price index (South Africa), Index (typography), Value (mathematics), Economics, Mean squared prediction error

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