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2017•DEStech Transactions on Economics Business and ManagementRequires access

Forecast of Consumption Price Index of Yunnan Residents Based on ARIMA Model

Li Li, Lei Xiao

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Abstract

In this paper, the monthly data of consumption price index in Yunnan from January 2000 to December 2014 is selected as the sample, and the ARIMA (12, 1, 10) model is established to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan residents. This model fits the sample data, the prediction error is small and the precision is high. Then the model can be used to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan province in 2016. The results show that the indicators in 2016 remained stable with a slight increase, which provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate economic control policies.

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What this paper is about

In this paper, the monthly data of consumption price index in Yunnan from January 2000 to December 2014 is selected as the sample, and the ARIMA (12, 1, 10) model is established to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan residents. This model fits the sample data, the prediction error is small and the precision is high. Then the model can be used to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan province in 2016. The results show that the indicators in 2016 remained stable with a slight increase, which provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate economic control policies.

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Available abstract

In this paper, the monthly data of consumption price index in Yunnan from January 2000 to December 2014 is selected as the sample, and the ARIMA (12, 1, 10) model is established to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan residents. This model fits the sample data, the prediction error is small and the precision is high. Then the model can be used to forecast the consumer price index of Yunnan province in 2016. The results show that the indicators in 2016 remained stable with a slight increase, which provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate economic control policies.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Index (typography), Sample (material), Consumption (sociology), Econometrics, Consumer price index (South Africa), Price index, Time series

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