GREY DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION AND FACTORS IN JINING

Based on the grain production data from 1949 to 2001 and agriculture statistical data from 1978 to 2001 in Jining, the grain production and factors are analyzed by the grey system theory method. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The grain production took on an increasing trend on the whole. (2) Per unit area grain yield, laborer, effective irrigated area, arable area and grain sown area are the most important factors that affect grain production. (3) Moreover, the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain are presented such as relying on scientific progress to increase per unit area grain yield, strengthening capital construction of farmland, setting up the control and evaluation system on arable, developing ecological agriculture.