Grey dynamic analysis of grain production in Hebei Province

Based on the statistical data at provincial and county levels from 1949 to 1998, the dynamic change of grain production and regional differences are discussed In the last 50 years, the total grain production took on an increasing trend on the whole In the period of 1949～1998, the total grain production increase was 24480 thousand tons with an annualaverage increase of 489 6 thousand tons and the per capita grain production increase was 320 8 kilograms Because of the differences in natural conditions and agricultural history, the spatial difference in grain production increase is very notable The regions with higher annualaverage increase rate of grain production are mainly distributed in the piedmont plains where irrigation conditionsand agricultural base are better such as Shijiazhuang, Handan, Xingtai, Baoding. However, the regions with lowre annualaverage increase rate of grain production are mainly located in the mountainous and hilly areas such as Zhangjiakou, Chengde and the easternplain with poor naturalconditions According to the grey systemtheory, factors affecting grain production are analyzed and correlative degree between factors and grain production is quantitatively measured The results show that per unit area grain yield, effective irrigated area and grain sown area are the most important factors that affect grain production Moreover, the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain production are discussed such as relying on scientific progress to increase per unit area grain yield, protecting arable land and stabilizinggrain sown area, popularizing technology of intercropping and improving multi crop index, strengthening capital constructionof farmland and enhancing the synthetic ability of agricultural production This paper provides a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Hebei Province