Comprehensive Evaluation of Regional Water Resources Shortage Risk Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

Aiming at the lower resolutions of the evaluation results what existed in the risk analysis methods of water resources system,based on the maximum information entropy principle,the risk rate,vulnerability,possibility of recovery,recurrence interval and risk level of regional water resources shortage were chosem as the evaluation indexes to establish the risk evaluation model of regional water resources shortage.Finally,water resources shortage risk in capital area of China including the Beijing and Tianjin was evaluated.The results showed that if there are not projects for diverting water from the south to the north,the water resources shortage risk of whole capital area in 2010 will at very high level,therefore,the effective risk management measures of water resources should be adopted urgently.