EARLY DETERMINATION OF THE JIASHI-BACHU STRONG EARTHQUAKE CLUSTER SEQUENCE TREND

Author used Jiashi-Bachu earthquake cluster sequence catalog recorded by Kashi station, E_m/ΣE and ΔM methods to determine the earthquake sequence early kind. Based on it, author used h, b, u, F value and so on to analyze the postseismic sequence trend. The main result show, (1) the characteristic of the Jiashi-Bachu strong earthquake cluster sequence is difficult, in the different steps of earthquake cluster activities, they have not only same characteristic but also different characteristics. In the every step of earthquake cluster activities, different strong earthquake sequence characteristics will appear in the early time; (2) after strong earthquake occurred, history strong earthquake kind in the region will help to determine the postseismic trend qualitatively. The after-earthquake wave in earthquake region are the key factors of early determining earthquake kind possibly; (3) using E_m/ΣE, ΔM methods and combining the small earthquake frequencies in the first day of after main earthquake to determine earthquake kind correctly. Based on it, using h, b, u, F value to analyze the every class sequence step by step; (4) using h value of M6.0 earthquake sequence and b value containing main earthquake to estimate the future strong earthquake magnitude. Using h value of M5.0 earthquake sequence and b value barring main earthquake to estimate the future strong post-earthquake magnitude; (5) tracking son earthquake sequence kind, estimating earthquake magnitude and abnormal dynamic change of parameter to determine whether there will occur strong(post-) earthquake in the after sequence. But you should pay attention to every class sequence relation and background of earthquake activities; (6) after strong earthquakes group, and h value appear high-low-high, it indicate the earthquake cluster activities come into latter time. The h value 1 after biggest earthquake occurred in the earthquake cluster, it is the symbol of sequence in the latter time.