Regression and Grey Correlative Analyses on Factors Affecting Tourism Development in Fujian Province

The analysis of affecting factors on tourism development is one of the major contents in the study of regional tourism development.Based on the related statistical data during the period of 1998-2007 available in various yearbooks,18 indicators concerning economic support,tourist traffic,tourist service,tourism propaganda,social civilization level,eco-environmental quality,as well as people living standard,are selected for analyzing the affecting factors on inbound and domestic tourism development in Fujian Province by using a combining method of linear regression analysis and grey correlative analysis.The linear regression analysis is used to find out the most representative indicators for the grey correlative analysis model.The grey correlative analysis gives out then the final results.By combing above mentioned two methods,it is possible to aggregate advantages of the both methods.Through this combined analysis,more reasonable and actual judgment for dominant factors affecting tourism development in Fujian Province can be obtained.The analysis results indicate that the most important promoting factors for inbound and domestic tourism development are the rapid growth of national economy and the steady improvement of living level of residents,respectively.In addition,the tourism propaganda has also played a significant role in promoting tourism development in Fujian Province.Although tourist service has had active contribution to the domestic tourism,it can not yet meet the requirement of the inbound tourism development.Conversely,the tourist traffic would have stimulated the development of inbound tourism,but it is still just difficult to adapt to the domestic tourism development.The study also suggests that the lower social civilization level and the poor eco-environment quality are the main obstructive factors for tourism development in the study area.Therefore,it is very important to improve the educational level of the residents and to strengthen ecological environment protection for the sustainable tourism development in Fujian Province.