Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model

The ecological footprint is an important way to analyze the regional sustainable development.In the present study,the ecological footprint of Changsha City from 1996 to 2008was calculated and analyzed by means of the ecological footprint model,while the trend of its development was predicted using the grey model.The results show that in 1996—2008,the ecological footprint of Changsha per capita increased from1.232 6hm2 to 1.872 2hm2,the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.391 8hm2 to 0.355 0hm2,while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.840 8hm2 in 1996 to 1.517 2hm2 in2008,indicating the growing trend.Likewise,according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2011 to 2020,the ecological deficit of the study area in2020 will increase up to 2.736 3hm2,suggesting that Changsha will be in the state of unsustainable development.The overload of regional ecological state required local governments to take effective measures to develop the ecological civilization of the ecological economy construction,to achieve the coordinated development of resource environment and regional economy.