Correlation Analysis and Statistical Prediction of Abnormal Cold/Warm in the Southwestern Region of China Spring

Using the spring(April~May) air temperature data of Southwest China from 1951 to 2006,500 hPa geopotential heights of the Northern Hemisphere,and the SST data of the north Pacific ocean,the relation between the climatic change of spring atmospheric temperature in the southwest region of China,500 hPa geopotential heights of the Northern Hemisphere,the sea surface temperature(SST) in the tropical region,and the Southern Oscillation were analyzed,through methods of composited analysis,relation analysis and association table.It is found that the spring air temperature in the southwestern China has obvious decadal climate variation characteristics.In years with extraordinarily cold or warm springs,500 hPa geopotential height departures in the Northern Hemisphere and the SST departure in the tropical region are quite different.The intensity change of subtropical high of the Northern Hemisphere in the former period of January to March and the tropical ocean temperature in the former period of August to February,especially the SST change in the third area of NINO in the former period of December to January,are well predictive to the spring atmospheric temperature in the southwestern China.They are close positive relation.The intensity change of the South Oscillation in the former period of August to September is also meaningful for it.They have close negative correlation.