Energy Consumption and China Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis based on the Dynamic Panel Data
Peng Li
Abstract
Peng Li
Abstract
China is the world's largest energy consumption country and is in the ranks of the second-largest economy.Energy is the important material of economic growth,and economic growth affects the energy consumption.For the aim of scientific development about energy consumption and economy growth,it is necessary for us to do the research.Meanwhile,the research about energy consumption and economic growth is very important in the field of energy economics. From a new perspective,we do research bout it.This paper uses the modified Diamond model to study the relationship between energy consumption and income from a microscopic view.We find energy consumption changes as the change of income.It means the increase of income will lead to the increase of energy consumption.We also find every term energy consumption is interrelated.This term's energy consumption increase means the next energy consumption increase. We build a dynamic panel data model using the data of China about energy consumption and economic growth from 1995 to 2008.Then we use panel cointegration test to do the empirical research.We find there is a cointegration relationship between China energy consumption and economic growth.It shows that the per capital GDP changes 1%,energy consumption will change 0.372222% with the same direction.This conclusion measures the specific quantity relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.And it shows that the current term energy consumption changes 1%,the lag term energy consumption will change 0.320371% with the same direction.This conclusion measures specific quantity relationship about the terms energy consumption.It demonstrates the inertia characteristic of energy consumption.We can judge that the demand and supply contradiction of energy will intensify.At last Granger cause test shows the economic growth is the Granger cause of the energy consumption.It indicates the pulling effect of economic growth on energy consumption.And it explains the fact that the faster economic growth the more energy consumption.But Granger cause test shows energy consumption is not the Granger cause of economic growth.It indicates the change of energy consumption don't cause a big impact to economic growth.It also indicates the policy of energy-saving is correct. Finally,we give some important advices based on our conclusions.First,it is necessary to change the extensive growth mode.The intensive growth mode is our direction and can reduce energy consumption greatly.And the energy shortage contraction can be eased.Second,we should optimize the industry structure and decrease the high energy-consumption proportion.It is necessary to eliminate high energy-consumption industries step by step.Meanwhile,the proportion of low energy-consumption industries should be improved.Third,we should optimize energy consumption structure that improve clear energy consumption proportion and decrease traditional energy consumption proportion.The structure of China energy consumption is very unreasonable.Coal and oil is the main object of energy consumption in China.And it is contrary to the developed countries.Fourth,we should improve energy efficiency by the progress of science and technology.And we also can achieve the policy of energy-saving by it.The level of China science and technology is low.So there is huge space to improve it as the rapid development of China economy. Although we do lots of work,there are some shortages in the paper.For example,we don't do the research about energy consumption and economic growth from area perspective.As a matter of fact,the economy disparity is clear in different areas in China.We can guess the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is different in different areas.And we don't do the empirical research from the structure of energy consumption.As a matter of fact,the traditional energy consumption will decrease as the optimization of energy consumption structure.At last,we omit some important variables in empirical test,such as technical level and population scale.These variables can affect the energy consumption.So the conclusions of empirical test may be different.All of these are the author's future research directions.
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China is the world's largest energy consumption country and is in the ranks of the second-largest economy.Energy is the important material of economic growth,and economic growth affects the energy consumption.For the aim of scientific development about energy consumption and economy growth,it is necessary for us to do the research.Meanwhile,the research about energy consumption and economic growth is very important in the field of energy economics. From a new perspective,we do research bout it.This paper uses the modified Diamond model to study the relationship between energy consumption and income from a microscopic view.We find energy consumption changes as the change of income.It means the increase of income will lead to the increase of energy consumption.We also find every term energy consumption is interrelated.This term's energy consumption increase means the next energy consumption increase. We build a dynamic panel data model using the data of China about energy consumption and economic growth from 1995 to 2008.Then we use panel cointegration test to do the empirical research.We find there is a cointegration relationship between China energy consumption and economic growth.It shows that the per capital GDP changes 1%,energy consumption will change 0.372222% with the same direction.This conclusion measures the specific quantity relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.And it shows that the current term energy consumption changes 1%,the lag term energy consumption will change 0.320371% with the same direction.This conclusion measures specific quantity relationship about the terms energy consumption.It demonstrates the inertia characteristic of energy consumption.We can judge that the demand and supply contradiction of energy will intensify.At last Granger cause test shows the economic growth is the Granger cause of the energy consumption.It indicates the pulling effect of economic growth on energy consumption.And it explains the fact that the faster economic growth the more energy consumption.But Granger cause test shows energy consumption is not the Granger cause of economic growth.It indicates the change of energy consumption don't cause a big impact to economic growth.It also indicates the policy of energy-saving is correct. Finally,we give some important advices based on our conclusions.First,it is necessary to change the extensive growth mode.The intensive growth mode is our direction and can reduce energy consumption greatly.And the energy shortage contraction can be eased.Second,we should optimize the industry structure and decrease the high energy-consumption proportion.It is necessary to eliminate high energy-consumption industries step by step.Meanwhile,the proportion of low energy-consumption industries should be improved.Third,we should optimize energy consumption structure that improve clear energy consumption proportion and decrease traditional energy consumption proportion.The structure of China energy consumption is very unreasonable.Coal and oil is the main object of energy consumption in China.And it is contrary to the developed countries.Fourth,we should improve energy efficiency by the progress of science and technology.And we also can achieve the policy of energy-saving by it.The level of China science and technology is low.So there is huge space to improve it as the rapid development of China economy. Although we do lots of work,there are some shortages in the paper.For example,we don't do the research about energy consumption and economic growth from area perspective.As a matter of fact,the economy disparity is clear in different areas in China.We can guess the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is different in different areas.And we don't do the empirical research from the structure of energy consumption.As a matter of fact,the traditional energy consumption will decrease as the optimization of energy consumption structure.At last,we omit some important variables in empirical test,such as technical level and population scale.These variables can affect the energy consumption.So the conclusions of empirical test may be different.All of these are the author's future research directions.
Key concepts: Energy consumption, Cointegration, Economics, Consumption (sociology), Panel data, Consumer spending, Autonomous consumption, China