Study on the Trend and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Area Change in Shaanxi Province

In this paper the macro-trend of cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province during the period from 1949 to 2003 is analyzed based on the field investigated and statistical data.The driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in the province are quantitatively researched using principal component analysis.The conclusions are as follows:(1) The cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province has experienced 5 stages since recent 50 years,i.e.,the enlargement,sharp reduction,enlargement again,slow reduction and sharp reduction again;(2) After carrying out the principal component analysis,it is found that there are 10 driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in two aspects: a.The synthetic effect of social,economic,scientific and technological factors including mainly the population,passenger transport,per unit area yield of grains,urbanization level,total power of farming machinery,GDP, tertiary industry value,etc.;b.The factors of farmlands of de-farming to afforesting;(3) It is predicted that the areas of cultivated lands in Shaanxi Province in 2010 and 2015 will be 2.38×10~6 hm~2 and 2.37×10~6 hm~2 respectively,these reveal that the cultivated land area in the province will be continuously reduced,but the reducing trend will be slowed down,and the pressure of sustainable development of regional agriculture will be mitigated.The study results can provide the scientific basis for rationally use and effectively protect the cultivated lands and for achieving the sustainable development of regional agriculture in the province.