Analysis on the Relationship between the Environmental Factors and the Desertification in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River by Multi-regression Models

The lower reaches of Tarim River is one of the regions with the most serious desertification. Because of the irrational exploitation since recent 50 years in the Tarim River watershed, some serious environmental problems have occurred, they include the stream flow cut-off from the 1970's, drawdown of groundwater level in a high amplitude, serious intimidation to the ecological environment, serious degeneration of the vegetation communities relying on groundwater for existence, increasingly degeneration of the local ecological environment, enlargement of desertification, etc. In this paper, some main environmental factors of desertification in the lower reaches of Tarim River are analyzed by the multi-regression models, regarding the change of groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River as the dominant factor and applying SPSS software based on the field investigation in recent years and laboratory analysis of the samples, and the regressive models for assessing the desertification in the lower reaches of Tarim River are developed. The results show that the groundwater level and the moisture content in soils are the main factors affecting the desertification in the lower reaches of Tarim River.