Analysis of the Desertification in Lower Reach of Tarim River by Multi-Regression Model

Desertification is the land degradation taking place in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas and caused by many reasons including climate change and unreasonable human activity. One of the most serious disaster areas in Xinjiang is the lower reaches of Tarim River region, where overuse of water resources brought about the increasing environment problem in this region. In recent 30 years, Tarim river has been cut off 320km, groundwater has decreased, natural Populus euphratica has reduced by large area, biological diversity has suffered, desertification has been developing. According to the monitoring in this region in recent two years, and analysis by multi-regression,the multi-regression model of desertification was built. The model show that the ground water decrease and soil water decrease are the main reasons that brought the development of desertification in the lower reaches of Tarim River.