Analysis of Factors Affecting the Energy Intensity Growth in Jiangsu Province Based on LMDI

With the rapid development of economy,the growth of total energy consumption in Jiangsu Province has progressively accelerated since 2002.However,the energy supply is far less than the demand.Energy supply security can affect sustainable development of Jiangsu's economy.According to statistics,the output value of the secondary industry accounts for 55% of GDP in 2008.To that end,the secondary industry is the most important sector of the Jiangsu's economic structure.However,its energy consumption accounts for as much as 82.43% of the total energy consumption.To unravel the obstacles and potential ways for energy-saving and reducing the total energy consumption,the authors made an attempt to comprehensively analyze influencing factors of energy consumption by examining the total energy consumption and respective energy consumption of six sectors in Jiangsu from 1996 to 2008.Then,the growth effects of the total energy consumption was decomposed into production effect,structural effect and intensity effect using the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI).Results showed that the production effect is the most critical factor stimulating energy consumption growth.But the intensity effect is the only factor inhibiting energy consumption growth in Jiangsu and a primary reason for decreased energy consumption.It was found that the inhibition effect of the structural effects from structural adjustment has not been emerged.This is because the proportion of the high energy-consuming industry is too large.On the other hand,the growth of the industry effect particularly the growth of high energy-consuming industries is the major factor responsible for the growth of energy consumption.Along with the strengthened production effect of rapid expansion,the structural effect also shows the effect of stimulating energy consumption growth.Therefore,to reduce energy consumption intensity of Jiangsu Province and achieve long-term economic sustainable development,it is suggested that appropriate laws and policies be formulated to encourage the development of low-carbon and green economy,and to develop a reasonable assessment of the green GDP index.In the meantime,the industrial structure should be adjusted,the economic growth modes should be upgraded to an energy-saving one and substantial efforts should be made in energy technology research and development,particularly in developing new and renewable energy.