RESEARCH ON EARTHQUAKE ANOMALY CHARACTERISTIC AND M≥5 EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TECHNICAL PROPOSAL IN SOUTHERN YUNNAN PROVINCE

By analyzing the seismological and precursory indicators of M≥5 earthquakes in Southern Yunnan,with earthquake frequency to describe the regional steady or non-steady active state,with seismic gap、earthquake belt to describe the seismogenic process,with forecast index weight integrated reliability value as the time criterion,the result indicated: the activity of M≥3 earthquakes(more than 10 in six months) after the remarkable calm of M≥4 earthquakes(more than seven hundred days) is a salient feature of Southern Yunnan province;Seismic gap and earthquake belt are universal before M≥5 earthquakes in Southern Yunnan,the average duration from the anomaly determination to earthquake occurrence is about 3.5 months and the main shock often occurs at the end of the long or short axis of the seismic gap,or at the end,middle or the empty section of the earthquake belt,and at the corresponding fault;Precursory group inhomogeneous degree anomaly indicated that there will be a M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan,or a M≥5 earthquake in Southern Yunnan or a M≥6 earthquake in the adjacent areas in 130 days;When the southern Yunnan earthquake risk reliability Σpi≥0.525,we can predict the target earthquake occurring in Southern Yunnan and its neighborhood more possibly.