Arable Land Change and Grain Production in Hubei Province

Arable land resource is the cornerstone of ensuring food security and social stability. The article analyzes the changes of cultivated area and grain production and the variant characteristics of minimum per-capita cultivated land area and pressure index in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2008. It also forecasts arable land area,population,food output,minimum per-capita cultivated land area,and land pressure index in the next 10 years by using GM (1,1) method. Results show that (1) Since 1978,the per-capita arable land area and per-capita food production have declined,yet minimum per capita arable land area has generally decreased and cultivated land pressure index is on growth fluctuation. (2) In the next 10 years,minimum per-capita arable land area will gradually decrease and pressure index will increase year by year. Furthermore,the declination speed of per-capita arable land will be faster than that of minimum per-capita arable land.