Grey-Markov Model for prediction of land subsidence

Tianjin Binhai New Area is situated in the meeting place of Beijing and Tianjin, facing Japan and Korea across the straights,it is an important passage for China's reform and opening to the outside world.Binhai New Area widely distributed soft soil is under-consolidated ground,not only will natural pressure consolidation,but also easily produce deformation under long-term load.For a long time,the situation of groundwater overexploitation is severe for the shortage of surface water.The land subsidence of Tianjin Binhai New Area is the result of natural factors and human activity comprehensively,the situation is indispensable.Applied certain theory and method to forecast the possible development trend of land subsidence and seek effective control measures is an urgent task of the land subsidence study of Tianjin Binhai New Area.Land subsidence is a kind of gradually changeable geological disaster,can be forecast its development trend.This paper has adopted grey system predictive model in combined with Markov model,provided grey-Markov forecasting model for prediction of land subsidence,and its calculation process is shown in an example.In order to easily calculate mass data,We wrote C++ program to forecast land subsidence of 170 monitoring points The results showed that grey-Markov model has practical significance for land subsidence prediction in Tianjin Binhai New Area,and also showed that it has higher precision of prediction in the forecasting of time series with strong randomicity and high fluctuation.In the application,grey-Markov model need more original data,the more data, the higher precision.